I always spend more time on the losers.
They’re the ones that sharpen the edge.
Just need to slow down long enough to study them.
In the Oct 6 Gameplan, I wrote:
“6767–6780 is the decision zone — buyers need to reclaim it, sellers need to defend it.”
By late morning, ES had flushed to 6766, reclaimed 6771, and rotated back toward 6780.
That reclaim looked like a potential failed breakdown — the kind that snaps shorts and starts a fresh leg higher. (I’ll discuss this lower)
So I stepped in with a small 15% short at 6778.75, risk 6784.75, aiming for 67 and 56.
A test.
Nothing heavy.
Just seeing if the shelf would hold again.
It didn’t.
What looked like a trap was just balance.
No flush, no panic, no stop run — just buyers defending higher inside the same zone I’d been watching since last week.
Structure hadn’t broken.
It had shifted.
And that’s the key difference.
A true failed breakdown comes from outside the range.
It’s a deep push that forces capitulation, then reclaims with authority.
This wasn’t that.
It was a shallow dip inside the decision area that got absorbed.
My entry was fine in theory, but it was anchored to the previous fight.
But, the 6771 reclaim had already moved the battle line up.
By the time I pulled the trigger, the market was building strength into the shelf test where I still saw resistance sitting.
I was wrong.
The 15% position was stopped out at 6785.
Price is doing what structure was hinting at all along. We’re not quite there yet, as 6793 is being tested again. But, acceptance through 6780 has opened up to 6803–6812.
No damage.
Just clarity.
The edge isn’t in calling every turn, it’s in knowing where the market’s fighting, and when that fight has moved.
This sits inside the “don’t trade in chop” theme I live by, but the 6771 FBD lookalike added a variable I thought was key to point out here.
FBD’s - The ones that matter and have weight- happen outside of structure, not inside balanced price action.
Shelf’s breaking down inside balanced price action are just as likely to be traded through and around, not respected like LTB’s.
I spend more time on trades like this than on the winners because this is where refinement lives.
Every loser has something to be learned.