Candle Size Relativity - ESDaily Insight
You don't need to be fancy. You don't need more "stuff"
Only a few times in my recent memory has ES felt like this — where both sides of the tape feel totally irrational.
👉 On one hand: “Who the hell is still buying? Can’t they see how overextended we are?”
👉 On the other: “Who the hell is selling? This is a one-way trip, hop on now or get left behind.”
This is the paradox at every major inflection point.
When both sides think the other is crazy… we’re probably close to a turning point.
This feeling comes from experiencing this type of market before. But you don’t need experience. You can see it…
One thing I look at — and something most traders overlook — is the size of candles relative to their peers.
You don’t need an indicator to see this. Just a screen and some time.
Over the last few days, we’ve been grinding higher. But take a close look at the candles doing the lifting.
Now look left — back to the candles from two weeks ago.
Major difference.
Those earlier candles were wide, impulsive, full of range and intent. The kind that come from real urgency — either buyers chasing or sellers puking.
Now? The candles are thin, tight-bodied, low-range. Price is moving, but it’s not moving with force. That’s not aggression — that’s hesitation.
So what does this mean?
It means opportunities we see are fewer. Whereas in prior weeks we were getting 2-3 opportunities a day, this week — we’ve had low single digit opportunities all week.
It means urgency is fading. Big players aren’t chasing this move — they’re either done or unloading into strength. This is what absorption looks like in real-time: price holds up, but the effort behind it dies out.
And that’s often the first clue before a reversal.
Markets don’t turn because of RSI. They turn when participation vanishes and the last buyers are left holding the bag.
I’m not predicting a top. I’m reading the tape.
And in my experience, this kind of tape speaks volumes.
For now - we wait. It’s not glamorous, but it is the right trade.
Our job isn’t to predict. It’s not to chase.
It’s to observe, prepare, and act only when the market offers institutional setups
Cheers,
PriceTrader
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