Monday June 23, 2025
The last several weeks we’ve been stuck in a tight and very wide range. We’ve talked about this extensively in virtually every newsletter since the start of June. 6091 to 5979 has captured roughly 70% of all trading since this time.
Inside this range we’ve had multiple “magnets” that I reference here and inside the chat/commentary. These magnets fluctuate a bit each day, but price finds it’s way to these areas and oscillates around them - one or two levels up and then fail.
6068
6045-6050
6019
6000
Identifying these magnets, and knowing they exist, help us understand the building block details of the current structure we’re in. We understand that the structure ES has given us has repeating building blocks that are stacked next to each other - forming a well defined sideways channel.
Last week the bottom of those building blocks held 5080 -
Last week - ES touched the top of those building blocks only once and used the 6068 magnet multiple times as furtherest level price was willing to go to on a push from 6045-50.
Same bottom of the channel - slightly lower tops.
It’s a simple concept.
But it’s important for me to understand this context - framing it like building blocks before I do anything else.
The building blocks saw large price swings and the structure took the hits at the bottom and showed the stability.
Thursday June 12th we saw price fallout 110 points from 7:30-10PM only to take back 100 points
We got hit with the Fed shock last week that had price stuck at 6050 - rushed to 6070 -and then collapsed down to 5979.
And just last evening at 6PM EST - an 80+ point gap down that was gobbled up over the next 12 hours. Stabilizing above 6000
It’s like a concrete block that gets hit with a mallet over and over — Without adding new cement to fill in the structure or rebar to stabilize it, each direct hit has the potential to weaken the block. First we see cracks in it, then a piece flies off, then it splits, and it’s then left with a hole that needs to be repaired before we can build on top of it.
The sideways structure that ES has had in place now — is split. I’m not sure just how many more hits it’s going to take before we go down to the next concrete block.
Being in the business we’re in, it’s important to have the capacity to mute and shut out the noise brought by the increased attention that comes with political unrest and geopolitical shocks.
I do my best to ignore them. They do not affect my ability to trade.
I was unaware of the US Airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities until late yesterday morning. I simply don’t watch the news or have push notifications to my phone. It’s irrelevant to me as a trader to follow such things - I cannot control them. I focus on what I can control - my risk and my attention to strategy execution.
That said - the only thing I have to say about the US/Iran strikes is this: I back my country, I pray for all people directly impacted and their families, and hope this doesn’t escalate to a point of no return.
I have no anticipation or forecasts about where this could lead markets.
The only thing I believe to come true is a pickup in volatility.
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