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Yesterday was a day some traders got chopped up.
After a Friday failed breakdown at 5651, where we have our runner from, we’ve rallied right up into the Major ES Inflection Point
Here’s what we’re looking like this morning:
At 12:11PM yesterday I noted we would likely see a pause in price as we approached the 5815-5821 zone.
We did pause.
And we continue to pause…
Not much in the way of news to break us out of this one way or the other this AM, Durable Goods will have moderate movement (likely), and we’re looking at the DYING momentum of this rally:
You can see on the chart above, we failed to create a new high, and the RSI of that high, is now below 60.
We now have two signs that a pullback may be coming
#1 The Negative Divergence indicated on the chart in pink lines. We have a higher high in price Monday at 3PM and lower momentum on the RSI.
#2 So far, we’ve failed to breach the 5836.50 high from 8PM last night.
If we can’t breakthrough there, and regain momentum, we’re going to pullback and perhaps get the failed breakdown opportunity I’m looking for to add to our runners.
I will repeat what I wrote yesterday morning:
“While pauses before/in the level are typically continuation patterns….”
I think we’re going to see a selloff today early to give us opportunity to add to our longs.
I really would like to see selling pressure push us below 5800.
While we did see a minor move down yesterday of about a 1/2% from the highs, we really just consolidated in the zone.
I found one opportunity yesterday I noted on X.
At ~9:52AM we tagged 5813, and rallied to 5837.25, T1 was said to be 5835:
I commented the issues I saw with taking the trade noting it was a first level pullback on a relatively large bull run since Friday, but it was an opportunity I may have taken if we didn’t have runners from much lower price points.
Here’s what I said:
5835 was hit in short order and by 3PM we pulled back to 5810 and then rallied until 6:10PM with a high of 5835, tagging our T1 a second time.
It was just a large back and forth in the ES Major Inflection Point
Couple key points on positions:
#1 We hold a runner a 20% from Friday 5651, we talked about this level and trade extensively here in Friday’s newsletter. Targets were all hit before 10AM Friday and I’ve not made a trade since. This stop remains 5767
#2 We hold 10% runners from March 14 at 5625 (ESH25 rollover’s). These stops remain 5732 this AM.
#3 No new trades Sunday, Monday, Tuesday or this AM
Going two full trading days without a trade, while isn’t the norm, is the correct thing to do with where we’re at.
Remember we sold off nearly 11% from Feb 20, and we’re rallied nearly 300 points since the March 13 low. Being we have positions already, the best use of our capital is to wait and let our runners run, and remain patient as we await volatility.
I feel like I’m beating the same drum over and over the last few days but the note below has never been more true:
Liquidity brings Volatility.
Volatility brings Opportunity
So now, let’s get to today’s opportunities.
Note: While there’s tons of levels I could post, I typically post the “likely” levels we hit today which is +/- a 1-1.5% move in ES either direction.
ES moves more than 1.5% per day (in either direction) less than 12% of trading days. To reduce confusion we stick to odds. Should we see greater than the 1.5% move I will update levels as timely as possible and will note potential setups on X.
Be sure to follow me on X.
Today… Here’s what I’m looking at as of 8:32AM Wednesday:
We’ve had an incredible start to the newsletter since inception March 14. With more than 400 ES points taken and an 88% win rate on trades all documented here. I hope you join me. Thank you for your To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Support/Demand- Support is not the same this as demand. Demand is high quality institutional levels we can see on the chart. While we seek demand, we may find opportunities for longs using support/magnet levels. We can find “subprime” areas of opportunity that price may use as bouncing points. We always want to ensure momentum is on our side in this case. In the section below, you’ll see areas of interest. If I consider them Demand, you’ll see a (D) followed by price.
Supports are: 5815, 5811 (Minor FBD Opp), 5804, 5797(D and Failed BD opp), 5791, 5787, 5780-5768(D & LTB), 5758 (D & LTB), 5754, 5745-35(D), 5731, 5722 (Gap and LTB), 5711, 5705, 5698 (D), 5692, 5684, 5678, 5668 (D)
Resistance/Supply- Supply is not the same this as resistance. Supply is high quality institutional levels we can see on the chart. While we seek supply, we may find opportunities for shorts using resistance/magnet levels. We can find “subprime” areas of opportunity that price may use as bouncing points. We always want to ensure momentum is on our side in this case. In the section below, you’ll see areas of interest. If I consider them Supply, you’ll see a (S) followed by price.
Resistances are: 5830-5832 (S and LTB), 5834, 5841, 5852, 5859 (S), 5868, 5872-5884 (S <B), 5893, 5902, 5910, 5922-26 (S).
If we continue the back and forth consolidation into Regular Trading Hours (RTH’s) this Wednesday, we will likely see divergence win. With that, a pullback comes.
We look to all the technicals and I’m literally 50/50 that we’re going to see another pullback, VS this being a continuation and we move above. Higher time frames suggest pullback, lower time frames suggest continuation.
But that’s the beauty of ES and trading. We don’t have to know where price is going.
We just stack the odds in our favor, let runners run, and wait for opportunities.
I’m going to harp one more time what I said yesterday:
Overtrading is the #1 way to lose money
The only thing I’d (still) be willing to do is sell runners or buy
While we hold multiple runners, it’s paramount to remember we don’t “have” to trade. The exactly what we did yesterday and Monday, nothing.
We moved a few stops is all.
And while I may not do anything personally as I’m substantially long, I think it’s important to point out that
#1 Price can reverse at any minute
#2 There’s always going to be more opportunities.
So while I don’t see any breakout opps to the high side today (because there’s so much resistance in the way of it’s Feb 20 selloff) we can look to buy.
Again,
Bored traders who still trade…. lose money.
There are plenty of trading days and plenty of opportunities are going to come our way. While I want to provide these opportunities to you as I see them come, I also think it’s equally important to suggest when there’s a time to do NOTHING.
And that’s what most of this week has been about…
I’m (still…still) waiting for a pullback…
Stops on runners are in place.
Trade like a robot
-PT
Join me :-)
Hi where do you post the intraday summary like you tweeted on X with the levels??
I just subbed yesterday.