ES Daily March 31 Levels

Here's some of the things I'm watching this AM before the open

You guys know we’ve talked about that Major ES Inflection point for over a week now:

A picture tells a 1000 words:

Check this out:

March 24:

The Approach:

March 26:

The Consolidation:

March 31:

Here’s what we’re looking like this morning:

Bears have officially made their presence known on ES.

Now traders are asking themselves:

Will this 250 point selloff continue?
Are we looking at shorts or long?

Let’s discuss in this mornings ESDaily brief pre-market.

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Here’s the news data that may matter this week:

Not much in the way of news to break us out of this one way or the other this AM but we do have a solid week of news:

• Monday March 31: None Important

• Tuesday April 1: ISM and JOLTS 10AM EST

• Wednesday April 2: ASP Non Farm Payrolls 8:15AM EST

• Thursday April 3: Unemployement Claims 8:30EST & ISM/PMI 10AM EST

• Friday April 4: Average Hourly Earnings Non-Farm Employment ChangeUnemployment Rate 8:30AM

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Couple key points on positions:

#1 We’ve been stopped out of all our runners:

All for solid gains from the March 21 low after stops we’re slid up and targets we’re hit. The selloff resulted in a few losses and a few T1 and T2’s hit. The result is the end of last week haulted our gains for a short period of time, but we took limited losses because of position sizing and waiting for Grade A+ setups.

#2 And I cannot stress this enough

Multiple traders took substaintital losses last week.

I heard from many people who tried to fight this selloff from the ES Major Inflection point multiple times. We took 2 full losses for less than 11 points each, and 2 trades that hit targets.

Remember: Our job is to take pieces of action, not hit home runs. If you’re trying to catch a top OR a bottom, you’ll like pay for it terms of a major hit to the P&L.

We have our risk and reward rules for a reason.

Let’s include those here:
#1 No more than 5% risked on any single position. Non negotiable.
#2 Nothing less than a 1/1 reward to risk for T1. Non negotiable
#3 I do not get to decide where Targets are. It’s just shy of next level resistance
#4 60-75% of contracts are to be taken at T1
#5 10-15% of contracts are to be taken at T2
#6 Always leave a runner if permitted
#7 Limiting number of trades

All these are described in detail here in our Core Strategy.

These rules saved ESDaily readers last week from the ES Major Inflection point selloff.

If you took substaintial losses, revisit the rules and I think the most critical one here, on a week like we had last week was #7

Limiting number of trades.

Overtrading is the easiest way to blow your account.

So we have rules around that.

If you’re in a winning trade, there’s literally nothing to do.
So don’t.

Don’t go seeking more action.

Only take the Grade A+ setup ES offers a few times a day.

Liquidity brings Volatility.
Volatility brings Opportunity

We’ve gotten the liqudity needed to provide opportunity

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So now, let’s get to today’s opportunities.

Note: While there’s tons of levels I could post, I typically post the “likely” levels we hit today which is +/- a 1-1.5% move in ES either direction.

ES moves more than 1.5% per day (in either direction) less than 12% of trading days. To reduce confusion we stick to odds. Should we see greater than the 1.5% move I will update levels as timely as possible and will note potential setups on X.

Be sure to follow me on X.

We’ve had an incredible start to the newsletter since inception March 14. With more than 400 ES points taken and an 76.9% win rate on trades all documented here. I hope you join me by entering in your info above. Thank you for your support.

Today… Here’s what I’m looking at as of 8:16AM Monday

Support/Demand- Support is not the same this as demand. Demand is high quality institutional levels we can see on the chart. While we seek demand, we may find opportunities for longs using support/magnet levels. We can find “subprime” areas of opportunity that price may use as bouncing points. We always want to ensure momentum is on our side in this case. In the section below, you’ll see areas of interest. If I consider them Demand, you’ll see a (D) followed by price.

Supports are: 5574 (FBD & D), 5560, 5545 (D), 5532 (D), 22525, 5513(D), 5500 (Critical Area), 5495, 5485 (Demand), 5470

Resistance/Supply- Supply is not the same this as resistance. Supply is high quality institutional levels we can see on the chart. While we seek supply, we may find opportunities for shorts using resistance/magnet levels. We can find “subprime” areas of opportunity that price may use as bouncing points. We always want to ensure momentum is on our side in this case. In the section below, you’ll see areas of interest. If I consider them Supply, you’ll see a (S) followed by price.

Resistances are: 5578, 5591, 5602(S), 5618, 5624, 5635, 5650 (S), 5655-5669 (S), 5687, 5698, 5712 (S)

If we continue the back and forth consolidation into Regular Trading Hours (RTH’s) this Wednesday, we will likely see divergence win. With that, a pullback comes.

We look to all the technicals and I’m literally 50/50 that we’re going to see another pullback, VS this being a continuation and we move above. Higher time frames suggest pullback, lower time frames suggest continuation.

But that’s the beauty of ES and trading. We don’t have to know where price is going.

We just stack the odds in our favor, let runners run, and wait for opportunities.

I’m going to harp one more time what I wrote earlier:

Overtrading is the #1 way to lose money

Bored traders who still trade…. lose money.

While there isn’t anything boring about the price action the last few trading days, we need to remember to wait for our setups. We don’t need to try and catch all the action.

We just need a piece of the action…
We just need one move.

There are plenty of trading days and plenty of opportunities are going to come our way. While I want to provide these opportunities to you as I see them come, I also think it’s equally important to suggest when there’s a time to do nothing.

I think we find opportunities today on the long/ and short side.

Remember the rules:

• 60-75% of contracts are to be taken at T1

• 10-15% of contracts are to be taken at T2

• Always leave a runner if permitted

And of course remember overtrading is the #1 way to lose money. Wait for the failed breaks or level trackbacks

Then once you enter,

Trade like a robot

-PT

Join me :-)