Wednesday June 18, 2025
Happy Fed Day 😎!
Every trader wants to be the first to react on Fed Day.
That instinct — to trade the news, to catch the move, to be early — is the exact thing that gets most people chopped up.
This morning I checked Polymarket for fun to see what it said about a chance. UNCH
But that doesn’t stop $94M of bets taking place. Unreal
This business isn’t about reacting.
It’s about positioning — and knowing when to wait.
We’ve been inside a wide range for weeks. Today doesn’t change that unless it forces a breakout. And most Fed Days? They fake both directions before settling back into the same noise.
The first move is rarely the real one. And if you size up early, you are often punished.
So today, we stay patient. Let the algo swings do their thing. We’re not here to predict Jerome’s tone. We’re here to read the tape — and wait for structure to confirm a side.
That’s why today’s focus is simple: do less, wait more, and let price prove it.
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