July 28th - ES Testing The Line

Structure Ahead of Earnings and the Fed

Structure Ahead of Earnings and the Fed — July 28, 2026

Six months ago I wrote almost this exact newsletter I’m writing today.
Just inverted.

Same week of the calendar cycle, same two catalysts, four of the Mag 7 reporting and a Fed decision on Wednesday. In January the conclusion was that the selloff had failed structurally and any bearish case had to start from above reclaimed levels.

This time the chart is saying something different, and the difference is worth being precise about before Wednesday distorts everything.

The Sequence of the Daily Moves

By mid-June the market had spent ten weeks doing nothing but going up. The advance off the March 30 low at 6353.25 ran 1,295 points in 78 days with no correction worth naming. Pullbacks were shallow and got bought within a session or two.

That changed on June 15.

Price gapped up into 7648.75, made a new all-time high, and immediately rejected. There was no acceptance above the prior high, the gap was filled, and no attempt to build value there except a slow grind up, and a selloff… this is the channel we’re in today. Six weeks inside 7397 to 7626.

What’s different now?