May 2 – Earnings Sell, Then Reclaim -Pressure Balance – ESDaily Gameplan

Bears got steamrolled yesterday as 120 selloff started the day. We ended with a 193.5 rally, making it 7 days in a row.

Friday May 2, 2025

We closed out April with seven green daily candles in a row. That doesn’t happen often — and when it does, the next move tends to punish the greedy.

So we stayed patient.

Coming into Thursday May 1, we were already holding our runners long from 5459 and 5538 — two positions built on clean structure, momentum shifts, and reclaim behavior. There was no need to press. No need to buy the first pullback. The May 1 Gameplan made it clear: “buying first level support on a seven-day rally isn’t ideal.”

That first level was 5635.

It hit. It held. It even triggered the clean reclaim pattern we watch for. But I didn’t take it. Why? Because that wasn’t an area I felt I could add and still give me my edge. We were already long from much lower prices and the threat of a rug pull is high after so much green we’ve had lately. The real opportunity was still developing as we awaited liquidity — and pressing into shallow pullbacks at the top of an extended run rarely gives us edge.

Instead, we waited.

The real trade came after earnings hit. Several companies reported at the bell yesterday but notably, Apple and Amazon. The market didn’t like what they printed — and the market flushed hard.

That’s when 5619 came into play.

It was the next clean reclaim area we had mapped (Wednesday bull close high), and it offered structure, context, and confluence.

That’s the one I took. Small size, tight plan, real risk/reward.

Now we head into May 2 with:
– Clean rejection off 5665
– Overnight balance holding 5645–5672
– NFP hitting at 8:30 AM

We’re still holding runners, 3 different positions now. We’re still respecting the map. We’re still playing offense — but only when structure gives us the green light.

And, we failed to make a new high at 11:30 PM — we’re fading off that 5672 now. Is it the first of many lower highs to come?

Let’s stay patient. Let’s stay selective.

Reactive > Predictive

Trade Review — May 1, 2025 - 1 Trade

Trade Opportunity Offered It Up In Newsletter And Posted On X.
– 5635 Long (Flush and Reclaim Setup Into Overnight Spike).

Today’s plan. Simple:

Wait for failed breakdowns, acceptance, and reclaims

That’s exactly what I wrote in the May 1 newsletter.

Instead I prefer to let the runners work and let ES seek liqudity.

But I wanted to provide opportunities that still exist, and still match our Core Strategy.

That chance came at the open Thursday morning, right into 5635 — a level flagged as first real support beneath 5665.

I wrote this in the May 1 newsletter:

The 5635 support is really the first one I see since topping early this AM at 5662. We will probably catch a bounce here and see where the bulls take us. While I will not be engaging here, one possibility would be a flush below 5635, ideally to 5626 and then reclaim 35.

I then posted this on X as the opportunity presented itself:

Price dipped into the level, diverged on RSI, reversed with strength, and powered straight to our targets.

No news triggered it.
No chop derailed it.
It was just structure doing its job.

• T1 = 5649

• T2 = 5670

Here’s a picture what happened:

Not exactly a flush, but nailed the low “ideally to 5626.”

The follow-through on 5635 sandwiched between resistance lines the top of the range — 5682 — which held through the overnight session.

That said — I didn’t take it.

The Gameplan made it clear: buying first level support after a seven-day rally isn’t ideal.

That first level was 5635.

It hit. It held. It even triggered the kind of clean reclaim pattern we track in nearly every plan — and I tracked it live on X, offering it as a valid trade for those looking to participate. The structure was there. The reaction was there. But I didn’t take it.

Why?

Because I didn’t need to.

I was already holding runners from 5459 and 5538 — size built from Wednesday’s reclaim trades. And when you’re holding runners from clean structure below, you don’t need to force your way into the first available bounce. The trade is already working. You’re already participating. That’s the power of positioning.

Without those runners, maybe I’d have taken the 5635 reclaim. But with them? The move wasn’t about getting in — it was about letting the structure prove it could still carry.

And that’s exactly what it did.

So while I passed on the trade personally, I still mapped it, tracked it, and treated it like a valid opportunity. Because part of the job is showing what’s available — not just what I take.

So… I waited.

All day.

Until we started to sell off…

Trade #2 – 5619 Long (Earnings Flush Reclaim, 30% Size)
This wasn’t a surprise.

In the midday X update at 12:57 PM, I laid out the next major downside levels:

“Below: 5619 / 5598 / 5584.”

We were still holding runners. We weren’t pressing. The plan was to wait for structure — and act if we got clean acceptance.

Then earnings hit.

Apple, Amazon, and McDonald’s all dropped. The market flushed hard — ES sold off from 5665 to 5606 in under 10 minutes. Headlines were flying, volatility spiked, and price ripped through both 5635 and the overnight mid.

That’s when 5619 triggered.

We flushed beneath it, then reclaimed with authority. I stepped in with 30% size, flagged it on X, and made it clear: this was a structure trade, not a full-size conviction press.

Then at 4:21 I wrote:

For 4 hours price tried to find a bottom.

It wasn’t until I was on the way home from the baseball fields I got home, checked price once the kids were to sleep. And I saw this:

I updated X. letting readers know we had another runner in place, and the stop was at breakeven.

By 9:20 PM, ES printed 5672 — completing the full rotation off the reclaim.

It wasn’t a high conviction trade in terms of size. But it didn’t need to be. I wasn’t going to be in front of the screen, and I really wanted price at 5485 to engage. But, the level was mapped. The reclaim was clean. And the execution was tight.

This was structure > headline tape. A clear plan followed cleanly.

Let’s get to today’s price action and opportunities.