Nov 3 - Nov 7 ESDaily Gameplans

Last Updated - Nov 3 4:52AM

Daily Gameplans Listed Below

- Monday November 3
- Tuesday November 4
- Wednesday November 5
- Thursday November 6
- Friday November 7
- ESDaily Strategy - Trade Rules - Key Level Codes (New Reader Must-Read)

Current Open Position(s) as of Nov 5

• Long /ESZ25 6774

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Monday November 3, 2025

When the Breakdown Doesn’t Break

Hopefully everyone had a good Halloween.

Maybe too much sugar, maybe not enough sleep.
The market was wired too.

After weeks of steady grind higher, we finally got the volatility we’d been waiting for.

All last week, the plan was simple.

Wait for the gap to fill.

Each Gameplan from Monday through Thursday said the same thing.

Patience.

The structure was stretched, momentum was fading, and the only trade worth taking would come after the breakdown.
The notes kept saying it. Don’t front-run it.
Wait for price to prove it.

By Friday afternoon, it did.
Price flushed through the October 30 low, traded into the Sunday gap, and filled it perfectly.

The breakdown everyone wanted finally showed up.
Most traders sold it.

Because breakdowns that move too cleanly usually don’t hold. They lure shorts in right before structure flips.

That’s exactly what happened.

The flush through 6851–6853 set the trap.

Buyers stepped in, reclaimed the level with intent, and the entire move reversed.

That was the Failed Breakdown we built for all week.

A gap closure, a FBD, and back to the 6900 magnet.

We caught it live at 6853.75, scaled three targets into 6900, and locked a runner still working from the same entryOct 31 Trade.

The trade didn’t just work.

It taught the lesson we’d been preparing for:
Structure, Discipline, Patience

Structure held. Discipline allowed the execution. Patience paid.

This is how you trade a stretched market.

You wait for emotion to overextend, not for noise in the middle.

The real edge lives at exhaustion, not continuation. Every block we’ve built since mid-October has mattered.

Each reclaim set the stage for the next.
Friday’s reversal confirmed it.

Structure is still intact.

The lesson from 6853 wasn’t just about catching a trade. It was about recognizing when structure resets. The failed breakdown wasn’t random. It was the first true retest of control after a 3 week climb built on stacked shelves and thin corrections.

What we saw Friday was structure defending itself in real time.

Now the question shifts from “will it hold” to “can it extend.”

The time frames together, they show a market that’s cooling, not breaking.
It shows resting, not reversing.

Let’s Dive into the Time Frame Analysis and Today’s Opportunities

Daily

The daily structure is still strong, but it’s maturing. The rally from 6250 to 6950 has now stretched over four months with minimal correction. That pace alone demands caution. Price is consolidating near the upper third of the 30-day range, forming overlapping candles between 6850 and 6950. These aren’t signs of exhaustion yet, but they are the early stages of digestion.

RSI has cooled from the high 70s seen during the late-October expansion to a balanced mid-50s reading. The last time daily RSI dropped from an overbought extreme like that was mid-September. What followed then wasn’t a reversal, but a controlled rotation that reloaded momentum before the next push higher. The same setup could be forming again…
Compression at highs while momentum resets beneath the surface.

Trend-wise, the daily still prints higher highs and higher lows.
The impulse legs of 6540 to 6756, then 6756 to 6949 have been steep, but each was followed by a pause rather than a full correction. The current range between 6850 and 6950 acts as that pause.

It’s a textbook continuation pattern inside a larger advance.

Structurally, the daily remains bullish. Momentum is decelerating, but not diverging. Price is building time above former resistance rather than giving it back. As long as 6850 holds, the trend remains intact — just transitioning from acceleration to balance.

4 Hr

The 4-hour has been the cleanest view of the entire October sequence. The October 10 flush reset the tape, and every rotation since has built a higher base.

6630, 6693, 6756, 6812, 6880, and finally 6853.

The latest reaction at 6853 is a near-perfect continuation of that rhythm. Each time the market overextends, it defends the prior shelf and reclaims control.

RSI behavior confirms the pattern. Peaks above 70 during mid-October coincided with each impulse leg higher. Those stretches were followed by shallow corrections where RSI pulled back to the low 40s before turning up again.

The recent reclaim came with RSI bouncing from 37 to 56… a moderate recovery that signals stabilization without overextension. The last time we saw this rhythm was mid-October, just before ES expanded another 120 points.

The trend here is orderly.
Impulses up, controlled pauses down.

The latest impulse ran from 6853 to 6918 before consolidating. The correction since then has been minor, holding above 6875. Each rotation is overlapping, which signals balance forming at the top rather than distribution.

Critical levels stand out. 6850 remains the lower boundary of active control. 6901 continues to act as a magnet… hit, rejected, and reclaimed several times

That repetition is typical before a breakout. Above 6925, resistance thins into 6950, where the next expansion leg would likely trigger.

The 4-hour remains constructive as long as RSI avoids closing below 40 and price holds above 6850. If RSI pushes back through 60, it often propels trend continuation. The last RSI push above 60 on this timeframe was October 23, and it preceded a 150-point expansion.

Structurally, this is still a trending market that’s catching its breath. The impulse has cooled, but the correction hasn’t broken any shelves.

Momentum is resetting, not reversing.

45 Min

The 45-minute has been the pulse of this trend. It captured the FBD on October 31 with precision.

Since then, structure has stabilized into a rising micro-channel between 6850 and 6915.

RSI on this timeframe is balanced but constructive. Thursday’s flush pushed RSI to 26, marking the first oversold reading since October 22.

That reading is rare in this trend.

The last time RSI dropped that low, ES reversed within hours and launched into a 200-point leg.

The same pattern repeated Friday on the FBD: deep oversold, quick rejection, fast rotation higher. Now RSI sits near 55, climbing without divergence, signaling rebuilding strength.

Trend rhythm is intact.

Impulses remain sharp, corrections shallow.

The pullback from 6950 to 6853 cleared stretched longs and reset liquidity. The reclaim through 6880 confirmed the structure reset. Each magnet level — 6881, 6901, and 6915 (next up) has been hit, respected, and reclaimed in rotation. That repetition defines a balanced uptrend with buyers defending time, not just price.

If RSI can push into the 60s again and hold, that’s typically when the next extension leg begins.

Price is coiling just below the 6915 lid where that pattern could repeat.

15 Min

The 15-minute chart shows how cleanly Friday’s reclaim evolved. The flush below 6853 triggered panic volume, which was immediately reversed by a sharp V-turn and three consecutive bullish rotations.

That behavior of:
fast reject, steady climb, shallow pullbacks — is classic post-FBD structure.

The similarity in behavior can’t be ignored. RSI extremes that rebound this fast typically mark the start of new impulse legs, not the end of old ones.

Trend-wise, the 15-minute is rotating upward in short impulses, each 25–30 points wide. The current micro-impulse runs from 6853 to 6912, with corrections no deeper than 20 points.

That’s a healthy rhythm.

Magnet levels are doing their job. 6881 and 6901 continue to pull price back into rotation.

RSI is rebuilding momentum.

Here’s The Opportunities I’m looking at Monday morning with ES printing 6892