Sept 3 Mid Day Update - ESU25

2:08PM EST Sept 3, 2025

This morning’s Gameplan framed 6457–6461 as the key CRA shelf, 6438–6441 as the first pivot, and 6428–6424 as the first FBD demand band.

Price has respected that structure cleanly so far.

Here’s what I said:

The 6454 short I laid out as Opportunity #1 triggered early — sellers stepped in at the CRA zone and pushed ES lower.

T1 was taken at 6440.75, right into the pivot shelf.

From there, momentum continued.

As of mid-day we’re pressing directly into the 6428–6424 demand band highlighted in this morning’s note.

On the 45m, the lower-high rejection off 6460 confirmed sellers remain in control.

Until that’s reclaimed, the overall trends.

The sequence has been textbook: reject at CRA → rotate through the pivot → press into demand.

On the 15m, we’re now watching whether 6428–6424 sets up as a proper FBD.

The trigger here is the same as written in the Gameplan.

Acceptance above that band would trap shorts and set the stage for a rotation back toward 6440–6450.

Failure to reclaim opens the door to deeper structure at the 6412 pivot and ultimately the 6397–6388, which was mapped in this AM’s Gameplan as well.

For now, price has done exactly what the roadmap suggested:

Every meaningful move has come off a shelf, not in between.

Afternoon trade will be about respecting whether 6428–6424 holds or gives way.

For now, the short continues.