Structure leads, emotion follows.

Over the last fifteen days, the chart has told one of the cleanest structural recoveries of the year.

Friday October 24, 2025

Structure leads, emotion follows.

Over the last fifteen days, the chart has told one of the cleanest structural recoveries of the year. What began as a panic flush on October 10 near 6540 has evolved into a staircase of deliberate reclaims and disciplined higher lows. That 6540 washout was the exhaustion low. It was an emotional cleanout that reset positioning and cleared the deck. From there, every rotation higher has reinforced order where there was chaos.

The reclaim through 6608 flipped the first shelf back to demand, and every rung that followed confirmed control: 6665 reclaimed, 6695 defended, 6717 accepted, and 6760 taken back with conviction.

The 4-hour structure has matured from balance to trend.

The character of this tape has changed completely.

We’re no longer reacting to volatility.

We’re watching intent unfold.

Every attempted breakdown has failed, and each of those failures has built the next step in the ladder. The turning point came when 6718, once resistance, broke briefly and was reclaimed with force. That shift transformed what looked like a breakdown into the base for this week’s expansion.

Since that reclaim, ES has respected the 6718 shelf on every retest, confirming it as the current control pivot. The higher timeframe trend is now fully aligned, with the 8 EMA angled decisively above the 21 and 89, and RSI climbing steadily near 67. That’s momentum that’s firm, not frantic.

This is the evolution we wait for. Repair transforming into expansion. The market has traversed the entire 6540–6800 sell-off zone from October 10 and repaired it with precision.

Each shelf has been retaken in sequence, every reclaim has held, and the tape now carries the rhythm of a confident trend. The CPI spike to 6837 this morning wasn’t random.

It was the logical extension of two weeks of compression resolving higher.

The question now isn’t whether buyers are in control.
They are.

The question is whether they can sustain that control without handing the narrative back.

When a market can erase a 260-point liquidation in ten sessions without a single lower low on the 4-hour, it’s not just grinding higher — it’s repricing conviction.

The entire sequence from 6540 to 6837 is a case study in controlled aggression.

Failed breakdowns turning to demand.
Acceptance stacking on acceptance.
Sellers running out of air.

The next phase isn’t about chasing what’s already happened; it’s about recognizing that control now lives higher in the range.

Now let’s dive into the timeframe analysis and identify where the next opportunities lie..

Daily

On the daily chart, the market has fully repaired the October 10 breakdown. Each session since that low has stacked strength methodically, one clean reclaim at a time. Price is now pressing into the upper third of the range, with 6837 marking the first full extension above the 6800 resistance shelf that capped every rally for two weeks.

Momentum is constructive, not euphoric. RSI(13) sits near 63–65, confirming steady acceleration without the blow-off signature that ends trends. The 8 EMA continues to lead firmly above the 21 and 89, and slope alignment across all three is now positive—something we haven’t seen since early September.

Structurally, the daily shows a completed rotation through the prior sell-off zone (6540–6800). The question is whether this reclaim evolves into continuation through 6850–6875 or stalls in acceptance before the next leg higher. As long as 6718 holds beneath, this remains an expansion phase.

4 Hr

The 4-hour structure defines the current phase of trend maturity.

Since the October 10 low at 6540, each move higher has been supported by shallow retracements that held their prior shelves.

The tape has built a disciplined ladder: 6540 as the base, 6665 as the first rotation low, 6718 as the structural pivot, and 6760–6800 as the compression band that launched today’s breakout.

That rhythm…. the advance, pause, hold, extend… has repeated throughout the last fifteen days. The CPI extension to 6837 continues that same sequence.

Importantly, it emerged from structure rather than away from it, which signals a healthy trend.

Even after the breakout, the 4-hour candles remain proportionate, not vertical, showing that participation is balanced and not driven by panic.

Momentum holds steady near RSI 67, and the 8 EMA continues to guide price higher without separation.

The current 4-hour ladder suggests control remains layered, not overstretched. A backfill into 6770–6750 would be normal digestion inside trend, not breakdown.

45 Min

On the 45-minute chart, the last week reads like a spring tightening and then releasing. The balance between 6718 and 6800 defined the bulk of this week’s trading, compressing energy until todays breakout carried price through resistance.

The move to 6837 marks both the completion of that compression phase and the start of a new balance forming higher.

Early signs of acceptance are visible.

Intraday rotations above 6800 have been shallow, and the strongest responses continue to come on minor dips. Each 20–25 point pullback has built structure above the prior shelf. The 8 and 21 EMAs are rising together, guiding higher lows through 6790 and 6810, while RSI sits near 70, still trending, not diverging.

The 45-minute view shows a market that’s learning to hold higher ground. If price bases above 6800 into the close, that confirms this week’s breakout as structural, not emotional.

15 Min

The 15-minute rotation shows how tightly buyers have maintained control. The tape has respected its own rhythm with brief spikes lower, immediate reclaims, and steady rotation back toward highs.

Intraday divergence has appeared briefly on momentum, but price has refused to confirm it. Instead, each pause has resulted in small base-building behavior. The 6800 level, once heavy resistance, is now serving as clean intraday support.

This smaller timeframe structure shows how organized this advance has become. The moves are measured. Liquidity is layered. Sellers are still present, but they’re being absorbed rather than rewarded.

Here’s what opportunities I’m looking at Friday morning with ES printing 6820