The First Domino

But yesterday broke the rhythm for the first time.

Thursday September 25, 2025

The First Domino

They say big changes don’t hit all at once.

They start with a wobble, a crack, the first domino tipping.

You don’t always know how many more are lined up behind it, but the chain reaction starts small. Markets are no different.

The shelf that always reloaded - suddenly doesn’t.
The reclaim that always came - suddenly doesn’t.
The momentum that carries us - suddenly has cracks

That’s the first domino.

September has been defined by shelves doing their job.

Every time sellers flushed a level, buyers stepped in with the same script: wick the low, trap shorts, reclaim, and rotate.

That rhythm — base → trap → reclaim → rotate — built the staircase we’ve been climbing for most of the month.

It was never about runaway momentum or vertical melt-ups; the advance was earned shelf by shelf, rotation by rotation. That’s why the strategy worked so well: patience for the flush, confidence in the trap, and the discipline to ride the reclaims.

But yesterday broke the rhythm for the first time.

The test of 6699 should have looked like every other shelf this month — flush, trap, reclaim, rotate.

Instead, the script snapped.
The flush came, but the reclaim never followed.

You can see it on the 45-minute chart — there was no attempt at a reclaim.

Price went from 6703 straight down to 6683 in one shot.

No wick.
No fight.
No buyers stepping in.

That’s a big deal.

What had been a springboard became a lid, and for the first time all September, a shelf failed to do its job.

That failure carried weight because it arrived alongside another first….

RSI break under 40 on the 4h, a signal that momentum itself had turned.

Every pullback in this rally cooled into that band and reset, but never cracked it.
(Back then, the market gave us the clean flush-and-reclaim script that powered trades off shelves like 6393, 6465, and 6491 (All ESU25 not ESZ25)).

Well… yesterday it did.

Put those two together:

1. the failed 6699 shelf and

2. the RSI break — and you’ve got the type of environment that shifts character.

And that’s not just noise.

It’s the first time momentum has cracked since the September 2 floor that launched this entire march upward.

Buyers no longer own the impulses.
Sellers do.

This isn’t the end of the trend.

The daily staircase still stands, and buyers can still defend deeper shelves.

But the rhythm of September is gone.

The first domino has tipped.

Let’s dive into the Opportunities and TimeFrame breakdown here Sept 25 early AM