Nov 17 - Nov 21 ESDaily Gameplans

Last Updated - Nov 21 4:39AM

Daily Gameplans Listed Below

- Monday November 17
- Tuesday November 18
- Wednesday November 19
- Thursday November 20
- Friday November 21
- ESDaily Strategy - Trade Rules - Key Level Codes (New Reader Must-Read)

Current Open Position(s) as of Nov 21

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Monday November 17, 2025

Let Structure Speak

The past week reminded me why discipline matters more than direction.

Markets don’t reward prediction.
They reward patience around structure.

Every impulse that looked like a breakout got checked.
Every correction that felt like a breakdown found a bid.

That’s been the rhythm.
Push. Fade. Reset.

I talked all week about the importance of reading the character of the moves. The market kept swinging between impulsive selling and corrective bounces. Beneath the noise, structure didn’t break. It bent. Then it kept holding the shelves that mattered.

Friday gave us the best example yet.
ES flushed hard into the low 6680s.

That was the moment of truth. It was the first real test of the lower shelf created earlier in the month.

A fast liquidation. One-directional candles. Clear capitulation on the 15-minute. That kind of flush either breaks the structure or becomes the trap. And you know exactly how I treat traps. I stepped in at 6687.75, built the long, managed the targets, and now I carry a 10% runner into this week.

The level held. The trap sprung. The structure stayed intact.

Now we’re walking into Monday with overnight session giving more information.

This morning we’re pinned between a reclaimed short-term shelf and a deeper corrective pocket.

This is where patience matters the most because the next impulse will reveal whether last week’s selling was the end of a correction or the beginning of lower highs forming across the 45 and 4H. The daily has been messy but controlled. We haven’t broken the major higher-low structure. We also haven’t reclaimed the momentum zones that would shift the narrative back to clear trend continuation. That tension is where opportunity sits.

I always say price tells the truth when you zoom out.

Let’s Dive into the Time Frame Analysis and Today’s Opportunities

Daily

The daily structure is still bullish, but the tape is no longer in pure expansion. The rally from the summer lows into the 6900s has shifted into a wider, sloppier range where both sides get paid. Price is now rotating in the middle third of that range, with recent candles overlapping between roughly 6680 and 6850. That is the digestion phase after a long advance. Not distribution yet. Not clean continuation either.

The October liquidation defined the last major impulse down on this chart. Every leg since has either reclaimed that damage or tested how strong the rebuild really is. The most recent sell-off into the 6680s is the deepest test since that October event, yet it still respects a higher-low structure. Buyers defended the shelf where the 6687.75 long sits. That keeps the bigger uptrend alive even while momentum cools.

Daily RSI has bled off from prior overbought readings and now lives in the mid-40s. That is corrective, not broken. It tells me the trend is working off excess by time and rotation, not by a full reset.

As long as price holds above the 6680–6660 band, this remains a maturing uptrend, with the risk now shifting toward whether the next meaningful swing is a lower high beneath 6865 or another attempt to push back toward the highs

4 Hr

The 4hr chart is where the character shift shows up the clearest. Earlier in the trend each pullback was shallow and clean. Now the rotations are wider, with sharp drops followed by equally sharp bounces.

The October 10 style liquidation is still the template. We saw a smaller version of that last week when price drove vertically from the 6840s down into the 6680s before your long. That leg was impulsive down. The rebound that followed has been corrective up.

Structure on this timeframe now looks like a broad trading band. Recent highs stepped down from the 6950 region into the 6900s, then again into the 6840–6865 area. Lows have migrated higher from the October base into the mid-6600s, with Friday’s flush stopping just above the deeper shelves. The result is compression between lower highs and defended higher lows.

RSI dipped into the low 40s on the most recent sell-off and is trying to stabilize. That is consistent with a market that has lost upside momentum but has not yet rolled fully into a downtrend. For bulls to reclaim control on this timeframe, price needs to win back the 6796 zone and turn it into support. Lose 6666 with RSI pressing under 40 and the story shifts toward a genuine trend change rather than a long digestion.

45 Min

After topping in the high 6800s and low 6900s, ES rolled into a series of lower highs and lower lows that culminated in the hard drive into 6680s demand. That entire drop was a single large impulse lower. The reversal from that low was just as aggressive and is now being tested.

Clear ladder of levels here. Above price sit 6780, 6796, 6820, then the supply zone into 6849–6865. Below sit 6755, 6740, 6723, 6703, 6688, and finally the deeper 6666 and 6590 shelves. Friday’s low tagged the 6688 demand zone and ripped higher.

Trend rhythm on this timeframe is mixed.

The initial V-reversal from 6688 into the high 6700s was an impulse up. The pullback since then has been a controlled correction that keeps making higher lows above 6740 for now. RSI has recovered from deeply oversold readings into the mid-40s to low-50s, signaling repair but not strength.

If buyers can hold 6755–6740 on any early selling and then push through 6780–6796, this timeframe starts to look like a base forming after a washout rather than a bounce inside a larger down leg. Lose 6740 with momentum rolling back down and the door opens again to 6723 and 6688.

15 Min

Friday’s sell-off printed the classic panic leg lower, with almost no counter-rotation until price reached the 6688–6680 pocket. From there, the recovery built in a series of fast bounces and shallow pullbacks into the 6780 area. That sequence was the first sign that sellers were finally getting trapped near the lows rather than rewarded for pressing.

Since then, the structure has shifted into a choppy, overlapping pattern between 6740 and 6800. Small impulses up are followed by just-as-quick givebacks. The most recent push off Globex low at 6740.25 failed to sustain above 6800 and has rolled back toward the mid-6700s. That is what an intraday balance looks like after a V-reversal.

RSI on this timeframe oscillates rapidly between oversold and mid-range. The key tells now are whether future dips into 6755–6740 produce the same fast reject and steady climb that defined the 6688 rotation, or whether price starts to accept below those shelves. If we see another flush that springs 6740 and immediately drives back toward 6780 with RSI snapping higher, that is constructive for the long side and in line with your existing runner. If instead the market grinds down and holds below 6740, it would signal that the failed breakdown energy has faded and that the next impulse may favor a retest of deeper

Here’s The Opportunities I’m looking at Monday morning with ES printing 6770