May 1 – After 7 Days of Green, Do We Sell In May – ESDaily Gameplan

Bears got steamrolled yesterday as 120 selloff started the day. We ended with a 193.5 rally, making it 7 days in a row.

Thursday May 1, 2025

Seven straight green candles on the board.

Momentum stacked. Big tech dragging everything higher. And before yesterday’s bell, you could feel the market’s intent—“give us seven.”

The problem?

Everyone saw it.
And when 99% of the room sees the same trade, it usually doesn’t pay.

We came in prepared for both stories: history and technicals.

The April 30 newsletter laid out the zones that mattered and the traps that could trigger. We knew the bulls wanted continuation and the technicals said it’s “ok, go ahead.”

But we also knew the likelihood of 7 straight greens was razor thin.
A sharp selloff was entirely possible.

That’s exactly what we got.

A 120-point flush kicked off the session after GDP news.

No chase. No panic.

Just a reset into the levels we mapped hours earlier.
From there, we followed structure. Nothing more.

We took four trades. Not because we were aggressive—because the tape gave us four clean setups. One failed. Two ran. One gave us a perfect one-candle pop off the news wick.

No bias. No predictions. Just process.
Seven green closes didn’t come from hope.

They came from price structure.

Let’s review yesterday’s action

Trade Review — April 30, 2025 - 4 Trades

Trade #1 – 5543 Long (Pre-News Reclaim Into Spike, Then Fail)

Coming into Wednesday’s session, we were holding long exposure from 5504, 5529, and 5568— entries talked about extensively here. The April 30 newsletter framed the plan clearly: after six green daily candles and a trend-heavy stretch, we weren’t chasing higher opens.

Instead, the plan was simple:

We’d wait for price to sell off into mapped support, then look to compound longs if structure held.

We got exactly what we wanted.

ES pulled back into 5543, a clean support zone, and began to stabilize.

At 8:27 AM I gave notice on X:

Just ahead of the 8:30 news, I added to our position looking to scale size for continuation through the 5550–5570 cluster if the news confirmed.

The risk was defined: support fails and we dump. “Tight Stop”
The reward: a reclaim and push towards the 5664 critical line and breakout into upper resistance, backed by trend and tailwinds.

The news hit—and it landed bullish at first. ES spiked off the level, running fast to 5556.25, where we took T1 at 5554 on 75% of the position. But like many macro reactions, the move couldn’t sustain. Within minutes, the spike faded.

Price reversed sharply, slicing through the 5550 reclaim and dumping into prior structure. We stopped out the remaining 25% of Trade #1 at 5535, along with all runners from prior longs:

• 5504 (April 29 reclaim)

• 5529 (April 30 early LTB)

• 5568 (compounded into the 5529 position)

This was a one-candle trade. Planned, executed, and exited all within the opening burst. It gave us fast reward, then cleared us out before the session fully opened.

This is exactly why we trade the setup, not the outcome. We didn’t chase the news or anticipate anything. We traded structure. We waited for the pullback, planned the entry around that structure and booked partials on the spike. No hesitation on the exit once the reclaim failed. Always a stop order

Trade #2 – 5473 Long (Demand Attempt, No Acceptance, Stopout)

After being stopped out of Trade #1, we waited.

The newsletter laid the groundwork for what we were watching next:

If we can hold lows above 5500 and accept we could be in a rinse and repeat back up. If that fails we’ll likely see 5493/79 tested, where again I will wait and check the pulse if we’re accepted. If we are, we could look to be a buyer above those areas.

That zone came into play fast. Price flushed into 5473, a key demand level discussed in the morning letter, and initially found footing.

I entered Trade #2 long on the reclaim attempt through 5479, looking for rotation back through 5493, T1 at 5494, and a secondary push toward 5508.

But the reclaim didn’t stick. Price sliced clean through 5493—a key shelf I was watching for confirmation—but never accepted above it. Instead of building higher, ES rejected quickly and rotated back down. We took a full stop at 5467. No partials hit. No scale-outs.

The structure just failed after we waited for acceptance.

I noted on this on X:

This was a textbook attempt that didn’t materialize—price tagged the level, reclaimed briefly up to 5485, but gave no follow-through and no acceptance. When 5493 couldn’t hold, I respected the stop and stepped aside. Discipline kept it tight.

The pop to 85 was the first hint that we could be trying to bottom. We started diverging. This led me to

Trade #3 – 5459.25 Long (Divergence Builds, Full Rotation Up)

Price had just flushed from 5517 to 5455, and for the first time, we saw a responsive bounce that didn’t immediately fail.

Then came the divergence.

I noted it on X:

As price re-tested the lows, RSI started to climb, and structure firmed up around the 5455 support level and 5464(D) we’d mapped in the letter.

Price was weak but the weakness was fading. Sellers were exhausting themselves. It was printed on the chart. At 9:59AM we had a reversal pattern and after a retest to 5457 that held the 55 low I executed. I was filled on the launch out at 5459.25. I entered Trade #3 long, looking for a rebound.

Targets were laid out:

• T1 = 5472 (70%)

• T2 = 5494 (20%)

Price immediately started working.

We cleared 5472.
Then 5494.

Momentum built with each level. The reclaim of 5517—tested, flushed, then held—was the trigger that confirmed the move had legs.

Even with minimal live updates (I was closing on my house during the session), the structure played out beautifully and I noted T3 profits were taken at the 5535 level:

• At 12:19 PM, ES had bounced 80+ points off the 5455 low
• By 1:10 PM, bulls had absorbed 5517 and pushed to 5551
• At 5535, we trimmed an additional 5%, leaving a 5% runner active

Every leg was earned. Every exit was planned. We built into divergence, followed structure, and rode the full rotation—exactly how it’s drawn up in the core playbook.

Trade #4 – 5538 Long (Structure Reclaim, Rotation to 5607)

As the rotation from Trade #3 continued, price didn’t roll over—it held. That was the tell. The 5535–5540 zone, which had previously been resistance, was now acting like support. Buyers were defending every dip. It looked like we might not just bounce—we might start a trend. Momentum confirmed

With 5455 holding as the session low, and 5540 reclaiming cleanly, I initiated Trade #4 long at 5538, scaling in with conviction. This was a clear continuation play, building on the strength and structure from Trade #3.

I posted this on X at 2:43PM about the setup:

By 2:47 we were in the trade:

Targets were laid out:

• T1 = 5551 (60% off)

• T2 = 5565 (20% off)

The structure delivered. Price rotated smoothly through every level, with T1 and T2 hit in stride. When we tagged 5607, we exited another 10%, leaving a runner active into the late session push.

Throughout, the levels behaved exactly as mapped—each retest confirmed strength.

No chase. No rush.

Just clean execution off support-to-resistance structure, guided by conviction and flow.

I capped off the afternoon by mentioning this on X:

Let’s get to today’s price action and opportunities