May 6 – No Trade, No Problem — The Edge Is In The Waiting – ESDaily Gameplan

A week full of failed breakdowns… but how long can the bulls hang on?

Tuesday May 6, 2025

We didn’t take a trade yesterday. Not because there weren’t candles moving or levels breaking—but because there was no edge.

And that’s the point.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen it all:

• A failed breakdown at 5146 that started this whole move

• Multiple reclaims at 5255

• Picture perfect LTB at 5338

• A failed breakdown at 5455 that tore to 5724

• A failed breakout above 5720 that reversed hard, no retest

• A clean reclaim of 5619 that triggered a multi-day rally

• A grind from 5655 support yesterday that moved to upper range

• Negative Divergence starting Friday May 2 that we talked about extensively, noting a pullback is coming

• And now, a slow-motion unwind back toward 5625 overnight, a support level noted in May 5 newsletter here.

Each of those moves had structure. They had context. They had confirmation.

Monday the negative divergence built more momentum.

We mapped the levels. We watched 5655 get tested and rejected. But the follow-through never came. So we sat. And that’s the edge.

“Discipline is the difference between trading and gambling.”

Here’s the start of divergence playing out:

I started referencing the negative divergence occurring in the early hours of May 2nd

I continued to make notes warning of upside headfakes and at 12:15PM I said “I don’t think I’d want to be a buyer or seller into this area”

May 2 - 11:26AM, 12:15PM, 2:58PM
May 5 - 6:53AM, and finally yesterday on the backend of yesterday’s chop and momentum weaning —

At 4:01PM Yesterday, I closed the day by saying this:

“Bears are hungry”

I noted not wanting to be a buyer or seller, and yesterday I moved the stops on ALL my runners (5459, 5538, 5619, and 5641) to 5652.

All have been stopped out.

Structure Cracks, Levels Tell the Story

Here’s my chart I look at each day. These are yesterday’s S/R lines:

Every level from the May 6 plan played a role. First came the stall at 5654 that must hold. It did. Then we slowly breached 5674/5684/5695/5701 and then the unwind happened at 5706. Notice how each resistance line till 2:30PM was respected.

Then the unwind.

ES elevators down, and it did so from 2:45PM to 4PM breaking any support that was created all day. This is why grinding out of a level has little merit on retests. It’s why we didn’t do anything yesterday.

—Instead I wrote this post on the LTB Odds Enhancers. Check it out later today—

And now we’ve flushed below the Monday demand shelf of 5654 and sliced through 3 support zones from yesterday, nearly 4. We’re working on cracking 5625 as I type.

Will this continue?
Have we topped at 5724.75 on this bounce from 5127?

Let’s get into it.
Let’s stay patient.
Let’s stay selective.