May 7 – The Market Owes You Nothing – ESDaily Gameplan

Nailed the prep, nailed the entry, followed the plan. Still stopped. It reversed and ran to both targets — after taking us out. That's trading. Control what you can.

Wednesday May 7, 2025

We came into Tuesday with structure.

The 5459 long from April 30 triggered a 200+ point rally that peaked at 5724.50. That setup anchored the 5641 pullback long on Friday — a clean entry off 5675 that pushed directly into the 5720–5733 supply zone we’d mapped all week.

That zone held. Divergence confirmed. The high was in.

From there, we rotated lower. Monday gave us the first structural breakdown — lower highs, lower lows, and a clean trend reversal signal on the 45-min. We were watching for a move under 5600 — and got close. Price bottomed at 5607 at 9:45 before reclaiming 5620 into Tuesday.

That reclaim was the tell. We’d have a chance to get into our 5655 trade.

5655 was the level. I’d marked it as a LBT in the May 6 gameplan — support five times Monday, then failed. Move back into the level with momentum on our side, and I’m looking short.

I wrote this in the May 6 Next “Piece” Opportunity section:

Levels I’d Consider Engaging With

I’m interested in seeing what price looks like if we move back up to 5654. IF we can do that, with RSI below 60, fail at 5662, I’d be willing to engage in a short position beneath 5654. That would be 4 resistance levels broken and I’d have to ensure momentum was going to continue the rally it would take to get us through there.

We got the rally. We took the trade.

I entered short at 5650, just after 10:30 AM, once price retested and stalled. This was a textbook momentum LTB: reclaim of a failed level, confluence with structure, volume dying at resistance.

I noted the entry and the short initiation on X at the time they were occuring:

T1 = 5635.
T2 = 5618.

We got to 5638 — three points shy.

We took a long time (relatively) to decide which way we were going to go. We started to base just below the level. I offered a mid trade update noting the fact that basing below the level wasn’t an ideal situation and basing can result in a continuation move:

“Mid trade thoughts - I dislike this pause/retest of the level. Not ideal. Pausing at/just below the level is indicative of a continuation pattern. A direct ask was placed bc of the multiple confluences.”

No fortune telling, but it’s often what happens.

Then the wick.

A quick push to 5672 stopped us at 5661. Minutes later, the market rolled and hit both targets.

This is the job.

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I want to reference a chat I received during the trade about getting out early due to the basing action.

The person I was talking to made a great call — they exited ahead of the wick and probably avoided the stop. But this was before price came within 3 points of our target. It was still trading inside the structure.

I agreed with the observation. But I still stand by the approach.

For me, jumping in and out of trades is the fastest way to bleed edge. That’s how brokers eat — not traders. Once I’m in, my job is to manage risk, not micromanage tape.

I’m not here to scalp every uptick or dodge every 5-point drawdown. I’m here to let clean trades resolve. If I’m wrong, the stop takes me out. But unless I’m stopped, I don’t exit.

I don’t suffocate the trade. I let it breathe.

Sometimes that means I take a full stop that could’ve been avoided. But over 100 trades, that discipline pays. It keeps me from flinching. It keeps me from second-guessing clean structure.

I’d rather eat a loss than pull the plug early and watch it run without me. That’s not trading — that’s insecurity disguised as prudence.

This one didn’t work. But the method did. And that’s what matters

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The setup was clean. The level was defined. The logic was sound. I’d take it again 10 out of 10 times. What matters is following the process. Price did what it did. We managed risk, took the hit, and didn’t chase.

The rest of the day?

Chop — 5620 to 5652. No edge, no follow-through. That’s where accounts get chopped up. We stayed flat.

Look at the tight range post trade. Basically 5652-5620 all day.

There was nothing left to do, and no Grade A+ opportunities.

Now we reset — and it’s Fed Day.

Rates are expected to stay at 4.25–4.50%, but Powell takes the mic at 2:30. With Q1 GDP down, jobs still firm, inflation at 2.6%, and new tariffs in play, it’s going to move.

Breakout or shakeout — we’re ready.

Let’s prep.