Waiting - It's A Skill Most Don't Have – June 19 ESDaily Gameplan
While Fed Day had built up hope, brokers are the only ones who made money.
Thursday June 19, 2025
The Best Trades Aren’t Reactive. They’re Built.
(To join us in a trade we’re trading live right now - Go to the chat)
Yesterday was Fed Day — and like most Fed Days, the first move was the fake.
Early volatility drew everyone in. The headlines told traders they needed to act fast.
At 9:45AM we formed a double bottom at 6036 and front running began.
An hour later we were at 6074 and I offered a chart and commented this in the ESDaily chat room:
I think we chop around here between the two pink boxes on the chart
This is the chart I was talking about:
We did go outside that 15 min tested supply, but it was brief.
We faded back to 6050 by the time the “big news” was released.
Socials buzzed with “big move coming.”
But what did price actually do?
Nothing.
The chart tells the truth: ES chopped around 6050 all day — oscillating in a 40-point band, never truly breaking out, never violating key structure, and ultimately closing flat. That’s not a move. That’s a trap for impatient traders.
And that’s exactly why we waited.
I wrote this as a note on Substack yesterday and I’m going to include it here because I think it’s so powerful and relevant, especially on the backend of yesterday.
🧠 I wish I understood this when I first started trading…
1️⃣ ES is like building blocks. Each day adds a new block — stacked on top of the last. These blocks = structure. And structure defines everything.
2️⃣ For price to start a real move, institutions need to fill their orders. Big orders and real size create fleet movement. Retail chases, pushing prices in the direction of the institutional trade.
3️⃣ Only a few prices each day are where large orders can be filled. The best trades come from ignoring everything else, and focusing on identifying where those prices are, and understanding price behavior when the buying comes.
4️⃣ If orders aren’t filled, magnets form inside the same structure — Price oscillates between a few levels each direction…. providing little clarity.
Most days?
No liquidity event = no move. We chop. We stay in range. Doesn’t matter what’s on the news schedule.
Until a new block is made and critical pieces of the structure get violated, there’s few high probability moves.
The end result is seeing a clearer picture of what’s being printed.
I wish I understood this concept 15 years ago.
Yesterday we had no violation of structure. Kind of surprising if you watch news, but that’s the fact.
We waited.
Because that’s what good traders do.
We don’t force anything.
Opportunity 1 from June 18th’s Fed Day Letter was the first level I was looking at.
It wasn’t until the after hours where price started moving….
At 9:00PM EST price collapsed from 6020 to 5999.75.
I commented in the chat:
We took out 6000 by 1 tick and then reversed… I did not enter. We need a flush. While single dips in and out work occasionally I prefer to see price come into the leave show reversal accept and then reclaim. That’s not possible with 1 tick I think we’ll get another shot here before the evening is down
I started a new thread and emailed a separate note saying:
We are approaching the 6000 FBD zone for a second time.
Last night we hit 5999.75 and for a brief second we were under the zone.
But that's not a flush where we can engage that's a wick reversal -> I was alerted we got there and I watched it play out.
I did not enter.
We rallied to 6028, testing the lows of the Fed wickiness and have since sold off. We're printing 6005 as I type
Slight Divergence on the 45 min
Slight Divergence on the 15 Min
Beneath 6000, above 5991 and the acceptance and reversal
Price came to 5995.75 reversed and reclaimed.
I alerted the chat I was long 5999.25 and T1 was 6012 and T2 6021
T1 was hit, and as always we take the majority of the position off to lock in gains and eliminate risk. For me, this was 60%.
I included the receipts and commentary for this trade here.
Now what?
We wait.
We let price play out.
We don’t turn a winner into a loser.
There’s literally nothing for me to do until T2 is hit or I’m stopped out.
Price comes back to 5995? Cool - do nothing
Price rallies to 6018 and looks like it’s turning? Cool - do nothing
We.
Must.
Let.
The.
Trade.
Play.
Out.
I think that’s the blueprint.
Instead, I’ll look at other levels and post them here as Opportunities I want to take advantage of if price breaks or pushes.
For Fed Day traders, they were left unhappy - head down - as their profits evaporated.
They don’t think the way we do about trading.
“Each day is a building block stacked on the one before. Until a block is broken or added, structure holds. And if no liquidity event breaks it, we chop — doesn’t matter what’s on the news calendar.”
Because of that, most traders lose:
They front-run the Fed with no setup.
They switch systems mid-session.
They trade just because they feel something is about to happen.
None of that works over time.
Instead, we waited for a trade that built off the prior structure, confirmed by behavior — not a headline. That’s how you stay green.
Our Plan Today
Let’s dig into the levels — and the next opportunity we’re watching.
📊💥ES Daily Trade Review(s) & ScoreBoard - The Trade Review Link — The Scoreboard
Current Open Position(s)
Short from 6091 June 16 - I closed this last evening on a flush of Tuesday night’s low 6013. I alerted inside the chat. We give thanks.
Long from 5999.25 June 18 - Fed Day Opportunity 1 - 6012 was T1 - 60% off
🧠***ESDaily - My Thinking - My Trade Rules***🧠
This is the backbone of consistency in trading. Repeating what’s outlined below:
day-after-day, rain or shine, noise or flow…
Every.
Single.
Day.
What’s outlined below helps strip away hesitation and eliminate decision fatigue. When the rules are clear, there’s no need to think—just execute.
I can’t say this loud enough:
*Take the majority of your profits at T1.
If I could write it in blinking lights, I would.
It’s that important.
We do this for one simple reason—it keeps the win rate high.
-If T1 hits and we stop out after? We’re still profitable.
-If T1 and T2 hit? We move the stop to breakeven and let a runner work.
-If T1, T2, and T3 all hit? That’s a big win—and we’re still in if ES wants to push.
Just look at the Scoreboard. The results speak for themselves.
This system works because we take profits early and we’re surgical when it comes to managing risk.*We always leave a runner when permitted. The runner is the unlock.
It reduces FOMO.
It keeps us mentally level.
It frees us from trying to nail the top.
We take most off at T1, and we stay patient, ready to build back in as the tape develops.*Limit your trades.
Know when there’s opportunity—and when there’s not.
It’s hard to sit still. I get it. But learning to wait is a core skill in this business.
We don’t earn steady wages.
We get paid when we execute our setups, with discipline, in the right spots.*The market doesn’t hand out trophies for participation.
Too many traders stack early wins, only to give them back with one bad decision.
One overtrade.
One impulse long.
One “I’ll just try this” at the wrong time.
That’s how edges disappear—and capital evaporates.*Trading rewards patience, not action.
Sit on your hands until your spots come to you.
Let the setup build.
Let the tape reveal its hand.
If it’s not clean—skip it.*Your job is not to trade all day.
Your job is to extract high-quality risk from the market, and guard your capital like it’s your newborn baby.*Each session is a building block laid on top of the previous day.
Before we can trade well, we need to understand where price is, what structure it’s creating, and which areas are critical. That’s why I spend so much time on the trade recaps. I had slight heart palpitations pulling these from the daily letter😂, — Because they are that important. . Just because we’ve moved them to a separate page, please make it a habit to review the trades. The winners and the losers. Patterns repeat. Structures evolve. If you know what to look for, it becomes fluid.Wait for the setup → Execute by the rules → Rinse and repeat.
The real work is in the prep.
🧠Why Does ESDaily Strategy Work?
You can see all the different types of trades we take here.
Are they all home runs? No.
Are they all perfect? Definitely not.
But our win rate stays high because we stick to our rules—tight risk, smart profit-taking. That’s what keeps us green.
If T1 hits and we stop out after? We’re still profitable.
If T1 and T2 hit? We move the stop to breakeven and let a runner work.
If T1, T2, and T3 all hit? That’s a big win—and we’re still in if ES wants to push.We always leave a runner. The runner is the unlock.
It reduces FOMO.
It keeps us mentally level.
It frees us from trying to nail the top.
Because we’re already in.We take most off at T1, and we stay patient, ready to build back in as the tape develops.
🧠That’s the key: we’re not chasing the whole pie—
just a clean slice.
We need to take a PIECE of the action, not get all of it.
…Remember, we may just be provided 1 or 2 great opportunities a day. We don’t need multiple.
If we nail it, cool.
If we miss it, cool.Our job is to identify opportunities before they happen, and then execute.
🔑🧾Key Level Codes -
Demand (D)- A high-quality institutional zone where aggressive buying significantly outweighs selling, often leading to strong upward moves that follow thru.
Supply (S) - A high-quality institutional zone where aggressive selling significantly outweighs buying, often leading to strong downward moves that follow thru.Critical Area (CA) - A key level where often support becomes resistance or vis versa
Critical Reclaim Area (CRA)- Not to be confused with CA, CRA is key level where, if reclaimed by bulls or bears, momentum shifts decisively in their favor, often confirming direction with stronger conviction.Level Track-Back (LTB) - A key level price may revisit before continuation
Failed Breakdown (FBD) - When price breaks below support but quickly reclaims it, trapping shorts and often fueling a move higher.
Failed Breakout Reversal (FBR) – When price breaks above resistance but quickly falls back below, trapping longs and often triggering a move lower.Channel Top (CT) - The upper boundary of recent price. Often acting as resistance.
Channel Bottom (CB) – The lower boundary of recent price. Often acting as support.Breakdown (BD) – When price falls below a key level with momentum and room to run, signaling potential continuation lower.
Breakout (BO) – When price pushes above a key level with momentum and room to run, signaling potential continuation higher.For added confluence, please refer to the Core Strategy and Odds Enhancers
The Next Piece – Thursday June 19 Opportunities
Below are ESU25 levels I’m watching for June 19 with price at 6012
I wrote this yesterday: “Most of the day we’ll likely be quiet here at ESDaily. But when opportunity hits, we’ll strike”
I don’t know if today we only get the 5999.25 long or if there’s more opportunities to come. But I do know I will wait and play by the rules.
I’ll only take the trades that fit the Gameplan.
Important Note: In 94% of trading sessions, ES moves less than 2%. Prices below are reference points on the chart I am watching as likely bouncing/turning points for price within a 2% range of price at the time of writing. Not all supports and resistances are “engage-able”. There’s a time to engage, and a time to watch. I do not buy/sell these. I’m tracking, taking profits, and using them as confluence to trade ideas.
Likely Supports For 6/19 are: 6000 (CRA), 5991, 5979, 5963 (FBD + LTB + RBR), 5947, 5935, 5926, 5907, 5901, 5895(CA), 5883, 5869-5860(D), 5845
Likely Resistances For 6/19 are: 6017(CRA), 6027, 6034, 6044-6051 (CA), 6066, 6071, 6083 (CRA), 6092, 6098-6101(CA), 6109 (CT)6115 (CRA), 6128 (CRA)
📈Levels I’d Consider Getting Long
📈 Opportunity #1 FBD 5979
The low put in place last Thursday evening that’s been untested runs right into a 5979-5971 demand area. If price rotates into this area and holds above 5971 we could look to enter on a reclaim. A quick move in would have RSI weak so no direct bidding would take place. Same drill as always Flush → Acceptance → Reversal → Reclaim
Beneath that we need to be cautious. Tuesday June 3rd low of 5963 is there but the quality support is much lower. With a pickup in volatility and no acceptance in Opportunity 1, price could retest this area. It’s a wide range to take 5979 reclaim but one could size down, or simply pass.
📈 Opportunity #2 – 5947 FBD
5945-5945 had been a major magnet for weeks. It’s now 100 points below current price and on June 2nd we took off and haven’t revisited the area since. The entire month of May you can see it flip from support to resistance over 10 times. Markets have memory and if we do get a deep liquidity hunt and flush 5947 as low as 5931 or so, this provides a valid setup where we could buy on a reclaim. This will require patience as the zone is very wide. I will not be direct bidding here and there’s 16 points or so that we can see acceptance take place. A knife in that slices through will not be bought.
Unfortunately, price has stair stepped it’s way down into the 6000 level and any reclaims above current price, I don’t really prefer any. Maybe above 6052. If price gets closer we can discuss this in the chat live.
📉Levels I’d Consider Getting Short – Failed Breakout Reversals
I will not be adding to my short today, but on a deep flush where we can engage a failed breakdown, I will likely cover my short from Monday afternoon.
✍️📋 Today’s plan. Simple:
Be patient. Follow the rules. Let the 6000 trade play out. Lock in 25% more at T1 and leave a 15% runner.
Set the alerts and wait. No need to be sucked into the trade earlier, or turn a green day red.
🧠Wait for price to tell you where it’s headed — then react.
Do not forecast or assume.
🧠Follow our rules, protect our capital, size risk accordingly, take profits when they’re due, and only take Grade A+ setups
We’ll have to wait and see what price delivers today.
As always, stick to the plan.
Trade like a Robot, let’s make it a great Thursday